New Delhi, Jan 18: Gold prices are likely to continue their upward trajectory in the coming week, supported by strong safe-haven demand and growing expectations of interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve. Silver, however, may enter a phase of consolidation after witnessing an exceptional rally, market analysts said.
Experts noted that investors will closely track major global economic indicators, including inflation data from key economies, the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, GDP growth figures, PMI data and jobless claims. These indicators are expected to provide clearer signals on the future direction of the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy.
According to Pranav Mer, Vice President – Commodity and Currency Research at JM Financial Services, market participants will also keep an eye on economic data from China, which is crucial for industrial metals. He added that US President Donald Trump’s address at the World Economic Forum and an upcoming US Supreme Court ruling on trade-related matters could also influence market sentiment.
On the domestic front, gold futures on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) gained Rs 3,698, or about 2.7 per cent, over the past week. Prices touched an all-time high of Rs 1,43,590 per 10 grams on Wednesday before witnessing some profit booking.
Mer explained that the weekly gains were partly driven by the depreciation of the rupee against the US dollar. However, prices eased slightly toward the end of the week due to profit-taking and long liquidation, as geopolitical tensions softened following a more conciliatory stance by the US on Iran, along with stronger-than-expected US employment data and a firm dollar.
In international markets, gold futures on Comex rose by USD 94.5, or over 2 per cent, during the week. The metal settled at USD 4,595.4 per ounce on Friday after hitting a record high of USD 4,650.50 earlier in the week.
Prathamesh Mallya, DVP–Research at Angel One, said that gold gained more than 2 per cent amid heightened geopolitical risks related to Iran, which boosted demand for safe-haven assets. He added that expectations of US rate cuts, a weaker dollar, falling treasury yields and continued purchases by central banks continue to support gold prices.
Mallya projected that gold could test levels of around Rs 1,46,000 per 10 grams on the MCX and approximately USD 4,750 per ounce in global markets in the near term.
Silver, meanwhile, recorded a sharp rally, surging nearly 14 per cent or Rs 35,037 on the MCX during the week. The white metal hit a historic high of Rs 2,92,960 per kilogram.
Globally, silver gained USD 9.2, or nearly 12 per cent, to close at USD 88.53 per ounce after touching a lifetime peak of USD 93.75 last week.
Mer noted that silver’s steep upward move began to slow in the last few sessions as profit booking emerged. He attributed this to reports suggesting that the Trump administration may refrain from imposing tariffs on critical mining sectors for the time being.
While silver is expected to remain supported, analysts cautioned that its rapid rise could trigger a correction as prices approach the USD 100 per ounce level. Mer said a significant corrective move could occur either before or shortly after the metal crosses that mark.
Commenting on the broader outlook, Vijay Kuppa, CEO of InCred Money, said both gold and silver remain structurally strong despite the likelihood of short-term volatility.
He pointed out that sustained central bank buying and strong ETF inflows are absorbing a substantial portion of gold supply, while geopolitical risks and ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty continue to reinforce the role of precious metals as effective portfolio hedges.
Kuppa also highlighted silver’s dual appeal as both a precious and industrial metal, driven by rising demand from sectors such as technology, renewable energy and electrification. He added that after a prolonged rally, periods of consolidation or minor corrections are normal and do not alter the long-term positive trend.
